HL,
Until recently I hadn't thought about SNO's Journal, but if that is who Dr. Liau and the company have been working with the whole time, I really don't think we should be disappointed about it. I think it's very clear that Dr. Liau is highly respected at SNO and SNO as an organization is the one that's most applicable to what our vaccine is targeted at.
To me, what's most important is how the Journal is received, regardless of what Journal publishes the data. I have no idea whether we'll get massive acknowledgement from national or international media, or just a big yawn. If we get a tremendous media response, then you have the potential of a price spike that's largely based on emotion, people read, see. or hear what's in the media, decide they want to own the stock, and they issue market orders. If you want the stock, regardless of what you're going to pay for it, no telling how high the stock could be driven on such emotion. In the past such media attention has driven $1 stocks to over $100, but of course when people realized what they'd purchased the stock fell to where it belonged in the first price.
If we're greeted with the big yawn, fine, the stock price will build to where it should be without that huge upward spike. In one case, long term investors, who normally would just let the share price grow, will sell or try to at near the highs, and consider buying back perhaps many times more shares when the stock returns to where they believed it should be all along.
We may all have different beliefs as to where the stock price should be now, after the Journal, Annual Meeting, after submissions are accepted by the regulators, and when we gain regulatory approval. I believe that a year ago most of us thought we'd be much further down this trial by now, but I'm still of the belief that all of this may come together in a matter of just a few months. I'm not suggesting that all four regulators could approve this year, but I still believe the U.K. could still be possible, though probably early next year.
By mid-year next year I believe that all four may have approved, it's never certain until it happens, I just think its possible, perhaps even probable, depending on what we learn later this year about the acceptance of what we've supplied to the U.K.
Personally I believe that by the time we have the first approval our market cap ought to be at a few billion, as additional approvals come in it should grow. A partnership at any time should grow it to whatever price the partner agrees to pay, that ought to be in double digit billions, but no one knows for certain what it will take. Is a $25 to $50 billion market cap possible, sure, but unless we have a partner paying for stock at that level it will take revenue to justify that sort of price, revenue takes time to build.
Supply and demand greatly control how rapidly revenue can grow. Off label use is something that really shouldn't grow dramatically until demand is being met for people with GBM and other brain cancers. I really don't think anyone, outside of the company, who has any idea how long that will take. It could come rapidly if FlaskWorks units can be built and deployed by the tens of thousands monthly, but it will be longer if it's hundreds or less each month. I believe that there are many existing sites where FlaskWorks units could be deployed where all exists but the FlaskWork units themselves, the question is whether that's how the company plans to operate. Sawston is probably capable of handling the U.K. and perhaps much of Europe if that's permitted. CRL probably has facilities worldwide that can support much of the world, the real question is, do we have that sort of support from CRL. If it's there, and if massive numbers of FlaskWorks units can be rapidly supplied, along with tens to hundreds of thousands of the disposable cassettes we can grow the revenue quite rapidly.
Ideally by this time next year our supply is able to keep up with the demand with ever increasing off label use. I don't know that's possible, but if we have all the approvals by mid 2023 it would certainly be a nice target to try to meet.
Gary
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