Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[raja48185]

It's a no-brainer to me to hold off starting any trials till either AD or Rett ph3 results are out. The reasons are straightforward:
1. Anavex already has the largest indication (AD) and one easiest (Rett) indication in ph3, there is no incentive to start any other trials unless the company has capital and resources to spare (but Anavex has neither).
2. It costs between 600k and 1M per patient per trial. The 150M on the Anavex balance sheet is not going to get you very far before running out the money.

A better option (which Anavex is executing) is to hold onto the cash and wait for AD and Rett ph3 TLD. If AD ph2b/ph3 results are good, Anavex is probably worth tens of billions and it has enough capital to start as many trials as it desires.
If AD ph2b/ph3 results are not good, there is still enough capital to finish Rett and try any luck with 3-71.


So many of those items identified as catalysts for Fall of 2022 / 2H of 2022 are simply not happening ? If so, then that is another problem with Anavex - making up bullet points to be included in a PP presentation to fill up the white space. (frankly, I will be surprised if Anavex can pull it off - getting all the catalysts in the list by EOY)

Seriously, do not understand all this discussion around 2-73 approval when there is no hint of data read out (yeah it may be any day/week now). Nobody has any idea of when the results will be out, what they are going to highlight/ if there are going to be any changes in the last minute - changing goal posts etc.

Yeah, no worries if everything is stellar. But that is only one side of the coin and should not be a topic of discussion

This data read out is the true test - when the rubber meets the road. So this delay is different from other delays (earlier).
For example, we have seen the delay in progress after the first PDD data was out ( more than 2 years back?). In general, delay is not comforting.

IMO anybody (any one long the stock) should be more concerned about the enhanced risk following the AD-TLD data read out. We have seen it happen to our competitors - SAVA and ANVS - what happens when there is no real good news/bad news.