NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Doc, I believe that the last presentations strongly suggest that at least for the first 24 months, the crossovers demonstrate better survival.

At 15 months from surgery (12 months from randomization), fig 2 of the 2018
JTM publication shows on the OS graph a survival of about 77% (255 of 331 patients). At 12 months from randomization, the May 10 NYAS presentation shows a survival rate of 76.7% of the 232 patient treatment arm (178 survivors).
Deducting 178 from 255 gives us the 77 patients in the 99 member placebo
Group. That equals a 12 months survival rate of 77.6% and is very similar to the survival rate of the treatment group.
Now remember that the group of 99 includes 35 patients most of whom progressed rapidly and therefore did not receive DCVax-L. This strongly suggests that almost all the 12 month survivors in the group of 99 were crossover patients. This makes sense because the NYAS presentation stated that 90.6% of the crossover group were still alive 6 months after progression.
Even if all 64 patients had a PFS of exactly 8 months, how many of the 64 would fail to live another 4 months? Answer: very few.

Finally, at 24 months from randomization (27 months from surgery), 39.9% of the 331 patients or 132 patients were still alive (2018 JTM). At that time, 81 of the 232 treatment patients (34.9%) still survived. Consequently 51 of the 99 placebos were still alive (132-81=51). That means that more than 50% of the 99 were still alive at 24 months from randomization and that includes the 35 non-treated group (genuine placebos) most of whom were not alive at 24 months. Just imagine the mOS of the crossover group. Must have been phenomenal. No wonder that the crossover results are still on hold for the publication.