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Friday, May 13, 2022 7:21:27 PM
4/29 you wrote:
I am considering buying 3K shares to lower my dollar cost average from 8.30 to 7.03. I must admit that I do not understand your technical analysis and do not want to throw good money after bad. What does your TA say after yesterday’s continued slide? Thank you for any advice you’d be willing to give
To which I replied,
The stock is still in a down trend and probing for lower lows. On July 31, 2 months before the R-IT readout, bears were able to push the price to a 2.35 (a 52 week low). If the market continues its liquidation, that area could be a magnet for bottoming action - especially if some of the negatives Zip and others have listed are amplified during the upcoming earnings announcement.
Clearly, owing more shares - given these conditions - is dangerous in my opinion, until something injects bullish momentum into the picture. Without that, it is catching a falling knife. I will be looking to catch a reversal following a stab down that recovers intra-day on heavy volume absent of news. That is usually the only type of price action that finally entices short covering.
On May 2 I wrote,
When dealing with a falling knife, I identify previous high volume areas of prior support (2.65 and 2.35). Then I watch price action as these areas are approached or breached. What I look for is
1. High volume reversal bar or bullish wick
2. accompanied by a momentum reversal (yellow/green shaded area).
The reversal occurred today. Now it has to be confirmed by follow through in terms of price and momentum before I bite. my guess is today's close above yesterday's close ("reversal bar") means nothing.
It will likely take a flush (maybe in response to earnings) to print a bar (similar to the red arrow) capable of producing short covering.
On 5/4 I wrote this in response to the earnings gap down,
This is your opportunity to buy more. I believe we'll see a strong bounce after the open as shorts seize their chance to cover at a spike low.
This could be the red arrow I projected in the chart I shared a few days ago.
Clearly, unfortunately, the strong bounce did not ensue.
You are a long term investor in AMRN. Your recent purchase lowered your basis significantly. If you believe in the science and eventual ramp up in sales (which you must, or you wouldn't have considered adding shares), then you have nothing to worry about and should be celebrating purchasing near a potential bottom.
This wouldn't be the case if you were following the advice of the other blind posters on this board who suggested buying at 2.94.
Best,
ffs
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