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Friday, May 13, 2022 5:01:32 PM
FFS. So you're out of AMRN ( after a 17% gain ) ..on a day of very heavy up volume closing up 19.2 % .
I read this heavy volume as fund repositioning , short covering etc with a good possibility of a filing early next week of a hedge fund ( Denner maybe ) increasing their position by at least 1 %
Yes, I'm out. This was a short covering dead cat bounce that followed the index (LABU(3x Biotech ETF) = + 17.5% and has a similar ATR with AMRN). My HoldOver indicators are not even close to being bullish enough to hold this overnight.
Volume was strong, but it pales in comparison to the volume behind the post earnings slide. Price action was good, but stalled at the 50% retracement of the GapDown high to the recent low; typical of what you would see in a market undergoing a gamma squeeze (too many bears were short) on a day of options expiry .
No, it wasn't fund repositioning and more likely we'll see Denner decreased his position next week.
Its not a time I would be out of AMRN .
Your opinion. IMO, TA wise, deadcat bounces retrace and don't evolve into a sustained quality, technical repair rally until prices apexify, followed by a bullish MACD xover. This kind of severe gap down selloff is like a guy who falls out of a 2 story window. He lies there like he's dead.... then raises his head (today's move)... but seldom returns to his feet promptly and runs up the stairs until he has time to sufficiently recover (follow through is everything).
Don't get me wrong, it could happen and soon.... but so could a massive plunge to new depths - especially if fund liquidation is illuminated (including Denner) or the general market bangs its head on overhead and plunges to frightening levels next week (remember, it's tracking identical to 1929, 1987 and 2008).
So based on that, it IS the time to be out of AMRN.
Whichever way it goes, I'll be ready to take advantage. Until then, I'll sleep well over the weekend with my spoils in the bank and my crash helmet near :)
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