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Re: Whalatane post# 375605

Monday, 05/02/2022 9:04:32 PM

Monday, May 02, 2022 9:04:32 PM

Post# of 447426
Kiwi, have you changed your view now that March lows have been tested?

As I've stated several times ....Testing recent lows ( even testing S&P 4,000 ) is a distinct probability .
A crash ala 1929 is very very unlikely .



Consider this from Peter Schiff:

The greatest recession since the Great Depression was just beginning and that’s the last time the NASDAQ had a month this bad.”

But it’s even worse than that. On the year, the NASDAQ is down 17%. It’s the worst first four months of any year since the creation of the NASDAQ in 1971.


Last week, we got the initial GDP data for the first quarter. The projection was for an anemic 1% rise in GDP. Instead, GDP contracted by 1.4% annualized. That hardly screams “strong economy,” But the mainstream tried to spin it that way, claiming collapsing GDP is masking a solid recovery.
The Chicago PMI for April also missed, coming in below projections. The consensus was 61.3. The actual number was 56.4. It wasn’t even within the low end of projections.
We’re getting bad economic numbers showing a slowing economy and yet the inflation numbers continue to heat up, and the Federal Reserve remains on track for a 50 or 75 basis point rate hike this month, claiming the economy is strong enough to handle it.
When you look at the economic data and the weakness in the stock market, how is the Fed still confident that it can raise interest rates without a major recession? We could easily have another negative GDP print in Q2. After all, nobody expected it in Q1. That would officially bring us into a recession. What if the Fed is hiking rates into a recession? How bad will that recession be?

If it’s already this bad and we have interest rates at 0.25%, how much worse is it going to be if interest rates are higher? It seems amazing to me that people are so oblivious to the risk of recession, and how the Fed can be so confident, given how bad the numbers already are, that rate hikes aren’t going to cause a recession because the economy is so much stronger today than it ever has been in the past or at any other time when the Fed has been hiking rates when objectively, just looking at the data, it’s never been this weak.”

The only thing anybody can point to as evidence of economic strength is low unemployment. And that can change quickly.



Could this affect Denner's desire or strategy to own more AMRN shares as the economy declines into a recession/potential depression?
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