Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Amatuer17]

“And yes, almost surely Missling has in hand TLD, top line data, from the big Alzheimer's study with blarcamesine. Those will be released to the public when most appropriate. But in the meantime, Missling can hint to other Big Pharmaceutical execs a bit about what he knows; all of which would prompt ever larger collaboration offers”

The first sentence is pure speculation.

48 weeks for all patients do not get over before Jun - so how you know that M had TLD?

On the other hand, PFE purchased Arena pharma for $6.7 Billion when the P3 data was 3-4 months away. Some BP may take that kind of risk and make a bid for AVXL (PFE offered 100% premium to Arena mc - that 100% or even 200% premium will take Arena only to $30 and $2.3 B market cap.

If I were Biogen, I would make such gambling offer - $2.5 Billion or $30 per share offer - that represents some 125-150% premium - very attractive and M will have to respond