Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

50/50 odds. Up from 5% when I first bought AVXL, and I know many here believe the odds of approval is now closer to 90% but I like to be conservative.

If A273 is the panacea we hope it is, the drug will sell itself and the transformation from baby bio to big time drug company won’t require much direction — Dr. Missling’s most difficult job will pivot to him having to figure out what to do with the revenue avalanche.

I wasn’t initially sold on Dr. Missling. I thought he was too cavalier with going at it alone and when the stock price was in the low $1s I was the one saying he should reduce the risk and partner. Now, a $500mm valuation looks silly in hindsight if A273 is approved even for Rett alone.

I also applaud the decision to focus on these rare diseases that have better odds of approval because there aren’t any alternatives. Most CEOs wouldn’t care to spend their time on Rett, Fragile X, etc — Dr. Missling saw those opportunities and may need up netting a pediatric voucher that can accelerate the Alzheimer’s approval process.

You don’t care for Dr. Missling. Fine. But who do you suggest replaces him?