NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[biosectinvestor]

Thanks Chiugray. Very careful analysis and I respect the care shown.

I am not one that lists price predictions generally and I think some predictions are extremely high but I think Smith’s prediction is very cautious. I understand why he’s doing it, he fears he has been overly optimistic in the past so he is going to the other extreme while being still optimistic about DCVax. It’s a very reasonable approach. While these “market size” predictions are interesting, they are not really based on what I think would be realistic revenues but on what generically certain sources say that that “market” is worth, and I have found those kinds of predictions to typically be grossly inaccurate and behind on the “market size” when new technologies are on the market to change a particular market. Those kinds of predictions are based on what exists currently in that “market”, and it is a market that observers indicate has barely changed over numerous decades.

It’s a careful analysis and I do appreciate it, but between the really big predictions and this very conservative one, I think there are likely more realistic numbers that would look at the market’s likelihood to grow when a new and innovative product arrives. The old treatments will remain, but DCVax will add to and may actually become core to the standard of care going forward. That could also include Keytruda as well. Those kinds of changes change the “size” of a market considerably, and white rapidly.

I do not post anything I might calculate because I think generally such exercises are best left to be discovered by the market reaction to news that we do not yet know, which could come in drugs and drabs or in a rush over a few weeks or months. Depends what the results show and how the news gets communicated. I think it will likely shift the earth for GBM broadly, and ultimately for other solid tumors sooner than expected otherwise.

While they have to also be able to deliver, the market tends to see potential first, and then to have fluctuations in price around those numbers up and down. We’ll have to see how that plays out.

All IMHO.