Sunday, November 28, 2021 2:30:53 PM
This ticker is one of those slow accumulation ones, there just seems to be limited liquidity to gather shares quickly. I guess it takes time to build a strong position on it & then just sit & wait for things to happen. I do have one concern in that the A/S here is in excess on 9B, seemingly leftover from the 2019 1:1000 reverse split on the ticker. This essentially allows them to print shares at will. Having been in APLD, they started with a 9M O/S &500M A/S structure, but now sit 320M O/S & 1B A/S after share registrations. It will be interesting how they maneuver the share structure & issuances here to raise capital. At this time the share structure is great, but expect it to change dramatically over the next year if things begin to play out. The risk certainly is worth it.
Ever since TCRI dropped down to around the 6-cent area and churned a little bit there, it has been noticeably more difficult to purchase shares. I had some problems getting 10-20K share orders filled on the ask. If I remember correctly, late in the trading session on one of the days this week the ask was 10K shares at 7.5 cents, and I got filled zero shares out of my 10K order at that price. I was fully expecting to see that order get filled. I don't know if that is an encouraging sign of what is to come, or if this is simply just a lull in the selling pressure.
Regarding the 9.8+B authorized share count: That number in itself doesn't overly concern me right now. It isn't something that is necessarily indicative of what the future TCRI share structure might look like because that authorized share count has existed for years. Long before Phoenix/Munaf ever became involved here.
Regarding the future share structure: Exactly how everything is going to be structured here is a big question mark right now and will play a large role in whether TCRI becomes just a mediocre investment or a monster/beast of an investment. Hopefully the initial post-RM share structure will look reasonably good. My definition of "reasonably good" is the legacy shareholders of the shell retaining roughly 3-10% of the initial post-RM company. My guess/prediction is that the initial post-RM share structure will probably be somewhere between 200-500M shares.
In the majority of shell investments, if you buy the shell at a "reasonable" legacy share valuation and the legacy shareholders retain 3-10% of the initial post-RM company, you have a half-way decent chance of making good-to-great money on your investment. It is certainly not guaranteed that you will make money, but it at least gives you a legitimate fighting chance to do well.
In the case of TCRI, I am currently averaged in at 8 cents, which is a $800K legacy share valuation. I am completely comfortable buying a shell like this at that kind of valuation. It just makes sense to me, especially when you see investors willing to buy shells at legacy valuations of $10-30+M.
Having said all of the above, perhaps a note of caution is advisable here: When I am valuing TCRI as a shell and evaluating its prospects, I am working under the assumption that there are only 10M legacy shares here. An argument could be made that maybe I should include the entire 80M fully-diluted shares into the legacy share count. We don't know for certain exactly how these control shares acquired by AlphaBit will factor into the post-RM structure. There is always the possibility these shares could be intended/considered to be part of Munaf's personal portfolio and not contribute to the acquisition of the Phoenix asset(s). That would obviously change the valuations/structure here and make TCRI a much less attractive investment.
But I would be quite surprised if that turned out to be the case. During his speech, Munaf Ali clearly states that "Phoenix has recently acquired a US-listed entity". So I think that statement decreases some of the potential risk of AlphaBit turning out to be some type of unnecessary intermediary. But until all of the details of post-RM TCRI are revealed, it is a potential risk that investors should be aware of.
Recent TCRI News
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2026 06:04:27 PM
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/30/2026 03:14:32 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/05/2025 08:56:34 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2025 02:07:41 PM
