Heres something I would add
to your picture. The lines you draw look good. now it shows a rally to the pivot resistance peaks,around 4480,in that zone.
As Ive evolved my own chart analysis methods, Ive used all the basic tools, and eventually found a few tools, more esoteric that appeal to me and I learned to get a feel for what they can say. The Fibonacci tools, the ichimoku cloud, and I like to superimpose them on an Elliott wave pattern.
If you took your chart and applied the Fib retrace tool. make it a projection measurement. (162% of the wave 1 distance) and then superimpose the Elliott wave pattern into the picture, what you would find, is the wave 1 from 4404 comes to around 4432/4434 area. lets for now,call that area the wave 1. and measure the fib projection from that, you will get a target zone around 4480. and you can play around with it. I count the Elliott wave and see the longer jump as a subwave 3, the sideways slide zig zag around 4470 is a wave 4 and then the wave 5 will finish around a retest of the 4500 area.
A bullish rally wave is supposed to complete 5 waves to the peak. a bearish wave would be an ABC pattern, that finishes at resistance around the 'subwave 3' area. Thats what your chart is showing now., around the 4480 area, stalling and pausing,waiting to see if theres more bullish strength here to test 4500, or more bearish energy looking to
cap the rally now,and send price back down.It can be Either a bullish subwave 3 or a bearish finished wave C, ready to reverse downwward.
IF we are about to see the collapse momentum start asserting dominance, this 4800 area should cap and fail , and this is the first chance for that to happen. So it certainly bears close watching this week.
But it is possible, that the timing is for later, and if we see a rally continue now to retest the 4500/4540/ and even a new high.... then thats telling us something else. For now.
What do you think we're looking at here.
Are you familiar with the Elliott wave pattern?
AI
