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Monday, October 11, 2021 12:27:33 PM
There is good sense to your comment. Peter Lynch the greatest (arguably) mutual fund manager of all time, said more fortunes are lost waiting for a recession than you can imagine.
I wonder what he would say about today's market. He retired after building the Magellin fund into the country's largest fund, retiring decades ago.
One thing inherent in his saying is that people cannot time the market, which is a mainstay of the fund industy. (there are studies completely against this proposition, that they don't want you to knkow about, which begin with the premise of mean reversion, etc..and hard data.) Another saying (there is a saying in the market for every feeling) is that it depends on what you pay, or how about this one: trees don't grow to the sky, or how about another, they throw the good out with the bad, or about this one.....blah blha blah
Personally I think it depends on what you pay. One thing that nobody can deny is that with the CAPE PE of around 35 bucks or higher, we in the most expensive market of all time, more than 1929, with one exception, 2000. The financial industry will agree but they will then marshall their arguments: zero interest rates and TINO
I actually like AVXL. A good company in this space. The bet here is that the market stays inflated, an argument, and RETT and other things come to the rescue... In hindsight, which everything is, Dr. M made some long term strategic decisions which have taken....well the very long term. SAVA has been around as well for a long time, it is no johnny come lately. It is no Johnnyola.
But one thing is clear: for those theorizing that if this market goes serioiusly south, that small bios will escape carnage, that is simply untrue and I can tell you have not been in the market for very long, certainly not 2000 or 2008.
PS Peter Lynch was not a buy and hold guy whatsoever. He reviewed his fund's holdings religiously each quarter and like the rest of the fund industry turned his stocks over with shocking speed, something like 30% a quarter, keeping his maninstays but only if they were cutting the mustard. They don't want retail selling ever as then retail might move the money altogether.
So I am sending out this SOS.....if you are older
great album all these years still.
I wonder what he would say about today's market. He retired after building the Magellin fund into the country's largest fund, retiring decades ago.
One thing inherent in his saying is that people cannot time the market, which is a mainstay of the fund industy. (there are studies completely against this proposition, that they don't want you to knkow about, which begin with the premise of mean reversion, etc..and hard data.) Another saying (there is a saying in the market for every feeling) is that it depends on what you pay, or how about this one: trees don't grow to the sky, or how about another, they throw the good out with the bad, or about this one.....blah blha blah
Personally I think it depends on what you pay. One thing that nobody can deny is that with the CAPE PE of around 35 bucks or higher, we in the most expensive market of all time, more than 1929, with one exception, 2000. The financial industry will agree but they will then marshall their arguments: zero interest rates and TINO
I actually like AVXL. A good company in this space. The bet here is that the market stays inflated, an argument, and RETT and other things come to the rescue... In hindsight, which everything is, Dr. M made some long term strategic decisions which have taken....well the very long term. SAVA has been around as well for a long time, it is no johnny come lately. It is no Johnnyola.
But one thing is clear: for those theorizing that if this market goes serioiusly south, that small bios will escape carnage, that is simply untrue and I can tell you have not been in the market for very long, certainly not 2000 or 2008.
PS Peter Lynch was not a buy and hold guy whatsoever. He reviewed his fund's holdings religiously each quarter and like the rest of the fund industry turned his stocks over with shocking speed, something like 30% a quarter, keeping his maninstays but only if they were cutting the mustard. They don't want retail selling ever as then retail might move the money altogether.
So I am sending out this SOS.....if you are older
great album all these years still.
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