Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[DewDiligence]

Re: Daxi outlook

You won’t see large Daxi sales for the first couple of quarters because injectors have to be “trained” by RVNC’s medical team before they will be allowed to use the product. (Injectors from the various Daxi clinical trails are already trained, of course.) So, the education of consumers about the advantages of Daxi compared to other toxins will occur in parallel with injector training, to a large degree. It’s unreasonable, IMO, to think that there will be a bolus of patients clamoring to get Daxi right off the bat.

By the end of Daxi’s third full quarter on the market, I expect Daxi to have a double-digit-percentage patient share in the aesthetic portion of the botulinum-toxin market. After 18-24 months, I expect Daxi to have a 20% or better patient share of this market.

The really big sales numbers will come when Daxi is approved for cervical dystonia—at a much higher dose than for aesthetics—and Daxi becomes more widely used off-label for other movement disorders.