Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Birdbrain Ideas]

Thanks for posting scripts. I'm not too discouraged by these numbers for the following reasons:

1) The fact that scripts of all drugs for the week are flat and Lovaza also did not experience a particularly good week leads me to believe that August vacations and general summer slumber and likely even doctors on vacation made it hard this week to gain traction.

2) I forget what the numbers were for generics last week, but this might have been the every-other-week boost they get. If so, a 6 percent rise is considerably less than the 20 percent to 25 percent rise in scripts they used to see on their "up" weeks. At some point, they will reach a maximum saturation point whereby they won't continue to rise substantially unless Amarin increases the market size.

3) I have to think KM has some surprises to boost sales in the U.S. A partnership with Pfizer to educate doctors similar to what's happening in Canada would be the natural step. But we'll see.

4) For four or five months now, I've been expecting to see Vascepa scripts fall to 75,000 and then 70,000. The fact that hasn't happened is great because it takes us one week closer to the start of sales in Germany and other countries. Once that starts happening, U.S. sales become increasingly less important. It also seems that keeping scripts above 80,000 is the magic level that allows Amarin to remain relatively solvent.