Here is some quick back of the envelope revenue numbers. I hope someone can correct me if my assumptions are wrong. After some quick googling, there’s upwards of 100,000 transceivers in a single hyper scale data center.
Assuming one EO polymer modulator in each transceiver (could be more actually, not sure), that means upwards of 100,000 LWLG modulators in a single data center. Let’s use 80,000 modulators per center.
LWLG had stated they/the market is aiming for one dollar per Gb for cost. If we’re going to shoot for the first commercial modulators to be 400gb, that is $400 x 80,000 = $32,000,000 in LWLG modulators for one hyper scale data center.
At the end of 2020, there were just under 600 hyper scale data centers in the US which represents about 40% of the global number.
$19 billion in potential revenue assuming the LWLG modulators become the standard.
How often do they need replaced? Every 5 years? I don’t know….
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