Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Steady_T]

In a biotech portfolio the risk that any one stock takes a near 100% nosedive is far greater than the possibility than one see thousands of percent gains in a ‘we got this’ manner.

You have put your finger on the tyranny of statistics. The biotech statistics for the groups are both predictive and accurate.

Unfortunately that accuracy falls apart when it comes down to predicting what will happen to a single entity as opposed to the group as a whole. The same statistics that predict there will be one or two entities that succeed very well, while the rest fail, tells us very little about which one will be the successful one.

This is where the skill, or luck, of the individual investor comes in.

As for Anavex, my appraisal of the situation is that the risk has been reduced to a pretty low level. The data available, as sparse as it is, continues to support 2-73 being a successful drug in at least 1 if not several indications. But let's assume the worst and something black and bird like pops up. Anavex has several other drug in the pipeline that will limit that avian induced decline and provide opportunities for investment recovery and profit.

The up side has been well discussed and as you pointed out FOMO is real and the reason for the FOMO is also very real. The potential upside of Anavex is hard to find in the investment world.