Doma,
Where do you get your stages from?
I made them up since its my model of stages to explain my reasoning, not yours. I guess I should elaborate (not that ANY of our "models" will be correct):
1st stage - client/server software or applets
2nd stage - Embassy firmware licensing for PC TPMs (NSM already + ???)
3rd stage - E firmware "premium services" multi-industry deployment (PC/STB and Wi - NSM/Infineon/Atmel/STM/BRCM start "starting to publicly ship across the board")
4th stage - E firmware TPM complete replacement (meaning ubiquity)
I don't expect $20/share until 'outsiders' (funds/large money)recognize something happening more than software deplyment in PC-land. Once STBs, Cell phones, etc all enter the mix and Wave gets a first deal with a hardware company to manufacture chips with Embassy technology the stock should move beyond a ($20-30/share company) within a two year timeframe. But only then, and that's between steps 2 and 3. It could appreciate more, but not in the 2 year timeframe I was referring to. In two years, with only software deployment, unless something else happens, 20 bucks is max in my mind.
I think Wave's potential is one of two things (generally):
1) Wave is a software company with a couple hardware relationships in 5 years (NSM/Intel) ($40 per share in 5 years)...or....
2) Everything Wave dreamed would happen did...and they have Embassy chip technology all over the place with software services deployed all over the place and are "ubiquitous". This is a $150-200 stock in 5-7 years.
Actually, I don't really focus on valuation and chips deployed. Why? The stock is $2.80. For the CHART to hit a $100, there's gotta be some serious buying/fundamental news and profit taking happening in many stages for it to hit that level. Because of this, I don't care what's happening, unless Wave releases a slew of incredible PRs AND shows revenue to back it up, its not going to hit $100 in a year, or two, or three. The possibility of a QCOM is pie-in-the-sky. QCOM took more time than you all realize to get its recognition before it even rose to nose-bleed levels, and it sold off 50% of its value before it did that. Its going to take a lot of time, business success, and recognition to get to $100. This is my view.
I will never forget that Microsoft is a problem, and will continue to be a problem. I will also never forget that all the companies that Wave is dealing with expect to have a piece of the pie, as well. To summarize, Wave is taking a chunk of revenue from all the TCG companies...collectively. (IMO) I don't think they are out of the minefield yet - at all. But I do think they have a hell of a lot more going for them than 98% of the investments out there....
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