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Re: Doma post# 14890

Friday, 10/24/2003 9:05:49 AM

Friday, October 24, 2003 9:05:49 AM

Post# of 252315
Doma

There is a reasonable quantitative model which will dictate our share price. I like a quote I saw about underestimating how long it takes in the short term and overestimating how long it takes in the longer term. If (and it is a big if) deployment of TPMs follows the OEMs schedules, there will be 10's of millions of such devices in devices within 18 months. If users conclude that Wave's services are essential to make proper use of the devices, there will be a steady rampup of licensees with perhaps a quarter or two lag. At some point, premium services will be sold upon initial sale instead of the after market. If the $30 range is in the ballpark, then the share price will respond much earlier than 3 years from now. Lots of ifs I realize but I am not sure that Wave would ever get to 20 (eg very successful) if they can't get there earlier than 3.5+ years. But we're all guessing here.

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