Attila,
You may be correct. Here’s a possible audible:
No company operates in a vacuum. Perhaps, more so BP’s - lot riding on their various established revenue streams and pipelines.
Tecfidera is BIIB’s bread and butter MS warhorse. Recently, generics were granted the right to distribute Tecfidera at lower cost - patent ended. BIIB throws up the Hail Mary and APPEALS the ruling. That decision is due to come down any day.
It’s a tremendous long shot that B gets this overturned. They had to try - they are staring at the aducanumab no-go, as you say.
When Tecfidera appeal is denied...look for BIIB to drop $30 min/per share on that news. At that point, smart BOD would make a mound visit - Vounatsos will most likely be yanked. (Pinch hitting for MV, Manny Mota... player/CEO to be named).
Vounatsos has not grown the pipeline (it’s bone dry, he has hyped adu and not delivered in the CNS space while running up SP on hopes and his own benefit/job security. I see this as Custer’s last stand.)
With new CEO heading up Biogen, the picture looks like this:
Aducanumab gets a thumbs down (June 7) and Biogen sees a SP sub $100, significant MC drop, a serious pipeline drought, and patent cliff on all their biggies. All they have is infrastructure. Shareholders might scramble - nothing to hold for.
Assuming Anavex has real deal, we have everything EXCEPT infrastructure. With new CEO (Biogen) and in full retreat, look for us to “make medicine”.
Shares approved at ASM, announce our results, adu dead, no moves left for Biogen...
Licensing deal. We partner for short MS trial and royalties. More to come...Eisai - Rett Japan deal, AD and other indications...we got blockers. Franchise it all out - AVXL keeps IP and licenses out for all indications for royalties - Missling freed up to do what Anavex does best: drug development and trial design as hub and partner up each indication - no overhead.
The voucher for pediatric etc...you see the plethora of moves/strategies. Missling holding the ball tight - no fumbles. Clock management is the underrated coaching skill,imo.
Just Friday thoughts.
Also, nice floor was put in at $14.95 with the big buy last week. If there is interest at that level, and no volume under that - nothing of size, price will move up and new floors nailed down. This is the classic queen and rook “walking” the king to the wall. Check.
Shorts at $28 see the slow walk and single file to the exits, no squeeze but an ever tightening tourniquet.
Check, mate?
Look for news then - but never just on Anavex alone - we operate within a sector and some of that sector is too far in the deep water, waving for a lifeguard.
Not a bad scenario to watch play out. I’ve seen worse...mostly at PNC Park in the late innings.
Good weekend to all, (wait for your pitch)
Biostock
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