Cycle Trading

[Duma]

I have been playing JETS as a fun long term play. Bought a Mar19 22c back on 1/26 for 1.47. Now worth about 4.65. When it expires next week I plan to let it execute and hold the shares. For sure leisure travel is coming back, however I do expect business travel to be slower.

I like playing these longer term market/sector trends. I am getting better at them. Did oil last year, and missed another good move this year. Did JO for one move.

JETS has made a nice move from the 22 area to now 26-27. If you look at 60min it is easy to see the stall. What I see is M65 in DS2 while prices have stayed very flat. That is normally a very positive sign and says that another break out is coming.

So you are asking what is DS2. As I have said many times, DS (distribution) is by far the hardest phase to trade. So from the peak of M65 to zero, I divide the area into thirds. DS1 is M65 in the first third and DS2 in the second third. I am starting to realize that DS3 is when all the fire works start. DS1 and DS2 are usually just pb's or consolidation periods.

Let's see if it works this time. For sure if M65 goes into DS3, I will looking for an exit.