The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Re: PFE vs MRK

I prefer PFE for a few reasons. First, I expect PFE’s Prevar-20 to dominate MRK’s V114 in what is shaping up to be a very large global market for next-generation pneumococcal vaccines. The COVID-19 epidemic has underscored the importance of pneumococcal vaccination insofar as many deaths attributed to COVID-19 are actually cases of secondary bacterial pneumonia.

With wider coverage against the various pneumococcal strains, Prevnar-20 is simply a better product than V114, and I view this market as one where the better product ends up taking an overwhelming market share.

Moreover, PFE is set to make much more money on COVID-19 than MRK will (#msg-161435647, #msg-161413427).

Further, MRK is undergoing a leadership change* and a spinoff of its own (#msg-153661346), both of which add some uncertainty to MRK’s prospects.

All told, while both PFE and MRK are fine companies, PFE looks like the better long-term buy at the current valuations.

*CSO, Roger Perlmutter recently retired and CEO, Ken Frazier is retiring effective 6/30/21.