A few more thoughts, based on your questions:
previously captive Windows market?
(1) and (2) I would think more broadly as client market and server market. While x86 on windows used to own almost all the client market, that share is smaller now, and shrinking. I would say the same for the server market. Intel X86 captured the server market from custom RISC several years ago, and now everything from ARM to special function accelerators is taking back pieces.
(3) new products (as examples):
Alder lake with the little big approach. They have been shipping lakefield as a first pass into this market, but I really don't hear anything about it. Will it really significantly improve power and performance?
Sapphire rapids with Foveros packaging: Will it really generate the performance gains we would expect from this approach? Can the foveros packaging really dissipate the power requirements of a server CPU?
New market products like self driving cars, custom AI chips, and GPU's might fail because the competitor products are better. I think part of this is the Intel oneAPI software backbone that might make using Intel solutions easier. We will see.
I believe the Intel CPU ASP is down around $130/unit. I don't see ASP erosion for them. I think the risk is more in market share. Competing on ASP is going to be a losing game. Perhaps the ASP will drop because they lose the higher ASP segments of the market like high end server CPU's. AMD has certainly been taking the high end desktop market.
Intel's (and NVIDIA'S) problem is substantially different than AMD's. AMD is taking share of existing markets with existing solutions, they already have a core competency in. Historically that competency has been below the level of their competitors so they languished. Lisa (and team) have brought their products back to a competitive level. OTOH Intel needs to grow new markets and needs to fend off new approaches to their old markets. Having a resurgent AMD certainly makes this more interesting. Of course Intel needs to fix their execution problems as well.
--Alan
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