It's not about if we would win a suit based on the new Teva ruling but whether it's enough to forestall a generic entry.
Hikma's market cap is $6 billion. What do you think the lost profits would be for Amarin if a court ruled Hikma or another generic infringed? Me thinks greater than or close to Hikma's market cap.
There's not a generic CEO out there who is going to risk that until the Teva ruling is fully adjudicated and final. Whether that is through an en banc or all the way to the Supreme Court.....too much uncertainty to risk entering to lose your entire business. Last Friday's ruling was a game changer. It's not about whether a generic or Amarin would prevail based on the Teva ruling, it's about the risk / threat of what a bad outcome looks like. For the generics especially those like Hikma and Dr. Reddy's who are small fries....that risk could be game over / bankruptcy if a court finds infringement.
Judge Newman said all you need is circumstantial evidence. I don't see generics launching till the Teva ruling is fully adjudicated.
For Amarin any delay is good because it forestalls a generic entry. No generic......more profit for Amarin. USA market is far from dead.
Wall Street and most investors still have not connected the dots. Courts sometimes move at a glacial pace. In this instance time is on our side. The Teva ruling was huge. And I'm sure the suppliers to the generics are aware of it as well. They are not contracting in huge amounts until fully adjudicated. Too much risk.
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