Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Doc328]

I'm not expecting benefit of A273 for tremor in PD. M4 agonism may worsen tremor (see link below where I discussed in more detail). Clinically, muscarinic antagonists help motor function in PD so agonists would not be expected to help. However, there is potential for the dementia to improve with A273 in PDD via M1 agonism (and maybe S1R), similar to possibility in AD. An ideal medication for PDD may be an M1 agonist and M4 antagonists.

I give the PDD phase 2 study about a 20% chance to have a p<0.05 and only a 5% chance for p < 0.01. Placebos and randomization make stellar phase 2 responses difficult. I sold 1/4 of my shares at 5.25 and sold some $5 strike July covered calls to lock in profits and take a smaller position through topline release (as before I still expect topline data in second half of July, hopefully after opex so I can roll the covered calls... the implied volatility skew suggests a release before July opex).


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