Monday, May 25, 2020 4:51:59 PM
"How several targets are taken precisely and the next one just so close is not? it could be that that target is reserved for fund managers and their quarterly "indicators" so it is not ripe just yet? "
Well, it's been a pleasure (rare thing here unfortunately) this shop exchange.
I see your belief. I understand how you may have come to it.
I flipped myself few times on things (and therefore expect more flipping).
In my belief (ACCOUNTING FOR YOUR VERY VALID CONCERNS) trends DO exist and the rest (S/R, Gann, Angles, waves, etc etc).
Those are VALID elements. The MM have a problem with that as it potentially offer an edge to the players. So since they CAN NOT obliterate them (and I suspect they do NOT want to either) , then the next best thing is to :
1. cut them short (i.e. trendline, MA and channel followers fail just as they gain confidence)
2. Rotate them (let small swings go so Stochastic work and moving average players go crazy losing, then morph into a trending period so the stochastic players get frustrated and lose)
Once a trend takes hold the pattern becomes visible, so a trendline MUST be broken. So by the time 2 points are established and forms a trendline or channel they think it's time to change so no one can use that.
Sometimes they let it a while longer so to build trust in the game (think setup)...
I'm thinking that rotation comes in many ways. One of them is indicators and setups. MM has to fight an ever intelligent growing and advanced environment and I can't blame them for trying to NOT lose to the players.
I already mapped some items. Works, and I use it/them whenever possible, but it's a far cry from what could or should be. For example (under same logic as above) you can NOT have similarity in days. After a strong (long) day the odds are truly slim for another similar day, and if you get a second one then odds are excellent for a slow down, almost 100%.
I mapped this in two ways , one is shape/strength of a given day (daily chart) , and two, intraday strength seen through some short term EMA/SMA. The precision sometimes is spectacular. This is encouraging for similar work and thinking.
I think to try to map "indicator use" and "pattern use" (cadence of MM used tools). As always, I don't expect good results, but you never know. (time and too may projects are my nr1 problem)
The "clearing" I suspect is subject to the same "rotation to fool them foxes" thing
It's simple, but not easy
1,000 words
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