Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[studythosestocks]

Very long message from me, feel free to skip the whole thing. Much of this is against the feelings and philosophy of many here so don’t feel bad to call me a bunch of bad names if it gets rid of the frustrations we have right now. Since so long I have divided it into categories in case you prefer to skip the stuff that doesn’t interest you.
1. My pain with Judge Du’s decision (more cathartic for me than anyone benefitting from my diatribe. May want to skip)
2. Email to John Thero
3. My opinion on direction of company
4. Final thoughts on upcoming trial
5. OT anecdotal true sports story where you should never give up and an interesting tidbit on Jim McMahon


1 It was terrible to summarize it. I was at work on a very busy day seeing patients when I saw it crash into the 4’s. I knew immediately that we lost the case. I didn’t have time to look at much at that time. Just a really terrible feeling very similar to the 2013 Adcom disaster except this time I thought it would be all over (no more proving them wrong with the trial) and the vultures would buy us out for a song and a dance for the EU market and ROW market and discount the US to almost nothing. I thought game over and would be about 2 years with appeal and then our presence in US would be almost non-existent. Immediately texted my wife and left it at that since we didn’t get a break until end of day. Read through the posts and basically was in a very bad place that night. I kept trying to think of what our options as a company are (not that it changes anything). Trying to see if there was any hope and knowing I can’t hang in there 2 more years with it hovering around the 2s and 3s and wasting and sacrificing more of my precious life “waiting”. To add to the pain, I just bought $25K more shares around 13.57 on Friday afternoon (without telling the Mrs and would have to answer for that) for a swing trade. Nothing is 100% but I felt “certain”, “highly confident”, “highly likely” that with the hearing documents that we would win. I thought that the market may “sell the news” and I lose a few thousand if that happens but that I would be more likely to make a few thousand especially initially with the news and expected it Friday after hours or Monday after hours. Now I was sitting on 1800 more shares to my account that I could either sell at a loss or just add to my long term shares and figure up a way to cover this by the end of June with this Covid chaos going on in the world. I didn’t get any sleep Monday night waiting for the travesty of Tuesday morning. I was a walking zombie on Tuesday and thought I can’t ride this out another 2 years at my family’s expense. At this point, I could pay off a majority of my house, lick my wounds, mumble under my breath on how unfair life can be and how Amarin once again has been wronged beyond belief and that this whole saga is beyond anything that could be imagined or believed. I put a limit order to sell all my shares at 4.40 (which would cover a significant portion on paying off my house at 8:30 and went about my day not wanting to see the pain for the day. Once again it was a very long day. At the end of the day, I saw my order didn’t get filled and I believe we closed around 4.04? It looked like I missed having my order filled by 4 cents. Tuesday evening my daughter was flying back from Mexico city where she has been serving our church so went straight from work and met my wife at the airport and told her they didn’t get sold. We left it at that since Tuesday was all about my daughter and I didn’t want to interfere with her return. I slept on in Tuesday night and kept thinking what else we as a company can do (I still hadn’t read the entire ruling at that time. I was that bummed and didn’t have hours to look at it and honestly thought there was little hope). Then I see we get a lift on Wednesday and Yee has a lawyer he interviewed. I listened to every word he said and rolled every idea over in my head. I thought he was crazy with his odds but there are significant areas of appeal which could be found in our favor with the right lead counsel arguments and the right judges sitting in on the case. After hearing his comments, I knew I could ride this thing out until April/May next year if needed. Now I’m having to work like a crazy man the rest of April and May so I can cover the losses on my 1800 shares that were a “swing” trade but now long term. I’m all in and holding through the trial unless I feel strongly that there is no way we can win the appeal. I planning on attending if they have oral hearings open to the public. No one else do this please. It will make an old man of you quicker than you would like.







2. This was sent to John Thero on April 5th after much contemplation on my part on where I stood as a shareholder of the company. I had never sent him an emal before (almost did after the Adcom to congratulate him but decided to wait) I’m glad I waited until this time. I cannot imagine how discouraged the entire Amarin team was after the verdict. The purpose was to give my viewpoint to move forward with the attitude of “D** the torpedos, full speed ahead.” If someone robs us of our birthright, it won’t be with us laying silently huddled in the corner. Please note that my thoughts on the direction we should take with the appeal has changed with much findings on the MB and with all the legal minds and intelligent posters voicing their thoughts.
Dear John,
My name is …….. I'm not one who generally sends emails like this but I felt impressed that I should send this to you. You are strong man and a great leader. We have your back not only because of what you have and will do but because of who you ARE. Right now must be a particularly difficult time for you with the latest ruling. Please do not stay discouraged. It's natural to be angry, heartbroken, and even feel without hope initially but just as we have overcome all the other challenges placed before us, we will overcome again. Your efforts and direction will NOT be in vain. Of this I KNOW.

I personally believe that there are greater hands moving this miracle drug through the different obstacles which we have had. It's not coincidental that almost every challenge has been overcome. Just as we have had many negative forces and even some corruption working against us, we have also had positive forces working with us with the hard work of so many working in unity. I can't think of any other microcap company who would have been able to successfully finish the Reduce-It study with minimal dilution and without being incorporated into a larger entity. You have guided this ship through so many turbulent waters. You have been a wise and trusted captain of this ship. I thank you for this.

Think for a minute just a FEW of the challenges you have been a part of or helped guide us through. We've overcome a blind sided 2013 AdCom where it was clear that the FDA created the questions so that our sNDA would be rejected. This almost destroyed us. Had we not won NCE approval through the court system which is a rare event and won through the courts the right to share truthful and nonmisleading information which is even more rare from the Anchor trial I don't think we would be here. Do you think that was coincidental that we won? No, it's not coincidental. It took a boat load of hard and almost exhaustive effort and work but there IS a greater force directing this work and offsetting the negative and corrupt forces working against us. These rulings basically were necessary to keep us afloat until the Reduce It results could be released. I'm not going to bore you with my long journey with Amarin in this email except to say it has been one extraordinary painful and rewarding journey too. I shared only a small snippet of the journey at the last adcom when I shared my thoughts in favor of approval of Reduce-It during the public speaking forum at November Adcom. I went because I KNOW the great blessing Vascepa will be not only to those here but throughout the world. Maybe I can share just one short story of many. When the Reduce-It results were published on September 24th, my expectations from my models showed an 18% RRR. My wife and I literally broke down in tears at 3:30am CST on September 24th as I woke up early and saw an alert on my phone. I woke her up and said, "Honey, It's here. Here's our future. I know it works, but I just don't know if the trial was long enough to show statistical significance. Do you want me to read it out loud?" She said yes and as I read that it had a 25% RRR, I was in awe and tears started welling up in both our eyes." So many have sacrificed so much for AMRN over these many years and I knew that our prayers and faith had been answered. We both knelt by our bed and gave thanks for answering our prayers that this life saving medicine would make it to the finish line. We included thanks for you, the participants and for the good and faithful employees and employers of AMRN who sacrificed so much to bring this trial to a close.
Since the trial results, there has continued to be corrupt and unscrupulous forces working against us as seen with many of the hit articles, mineral oil commentaries, untruths, lies, etc. These of course are not going to go away... ever. There is too much at stake. We've had the FDA in the 11th hour require an advisory committee which pushed back our time frames and interfered to a large extend our ability to get lower tiered and preferred drug coverage. We've had the natural disaster with the Covid-19 virus interfere with our doctors being trained. All these have been trials that we have or will overcome with time.
Now we had this incredibly discouraging and inaccurate ruling from Judge Du. This is huge. At its best, she does not understand the science behind Icosapent Ethyl and how nonobvious it really is for a person of skilled art in 2008 to believe that EPA would lower triglycerides without increasing LDL as well as lower Apo-B. At it's worst, we are still dealing with more corruption at some level. Either way, we WILL have an opportunity through the Appellate process to prove to the 3 federal district judges the error that was made. Now we have to do EVERYTHING possible to win this appeal. The whole future of Amarin and Vascepa reaching the masses as it should relies on this.

As a layman who read all 500 plus pages of the briefing as well as the Final judgement, I see two problems.
A. The judge did not understand the science behind omega 3's lowered triglycerides and how in the process of lowering trigs they will undoubtedly elevate LDL's because of their mechanism of action. I don't think Judge Du even mentioned this in any detail in her obviousness ruling. Hopefully this will be explained in great depth in the appeals trial with the 3 judges so that they truly understand (in the most basic of terms) why lowering trigs with all the medications in 2008 would increase LDL. Also, I wish we would have had a statistician at the trial to explain how the Mori study may have shown that DHA statistically raised LDLs but that it did NOT show that EPA does not. This finding was not statistically significant and the most which could be said is that it was not proven (or disproven) that EPA doesn't raise LDLs. The study size was too small and underpowered. The statistical side is vital and does not seem as if it was even an area of focus. No POSA would have predicted that EPA does not increase LDL from this study from these results because it did not show a statistical value of trust. Statistics protect us in some ways from making these false conclusions.
B. I was disappointed that we failed to win the secondary considerations of praise. I believe that we need to focus a large amount of our energy on the commercial success and long felt need so that they weigh even greater against the defense requirement of showing clear and convincing evidence since Judge Du agreed on this. If we could strengthen even the praise argument somewhat, I think that would be huge. Once again, these are just thoughts from a layman.

In closing, I want you to know that I have and will continue to fully support and sustain you as OUR CEO. We haven't come this far ONLY to come this far. We must press on and win this battle not only for those involved with Amarin but also for those who NEED Vascepa. With a generic win, the research with Icosapent Ethyl will be stifled and many of its indications will not be discovered because it will not be financially feasible to pursue them. There is alot riding on this appeal but John, you are the right person, in the right place at the right time which will guide us through this with God's help. The obstacles will continue but this should be the last one of this magnitude. We've got your back. You are a good man, a diligent worker, and a man who truly sees the vision of what Icosapent Ethyl really offers this world. Go forward with faith doing everything within your power and then leave it in God's hands after we all have done all we can do. I'll be praying and cheering for you each day along with thousands of other people who you don't know but who could have just as easily written you this same email with the same exact words. Its going to work out.

Although the solemn words of Winston Churchill were spoken in a much more serious situation in the history of the world, his words also centered around saving lives and they also seem appropriate in our battle. I quote, "Never give in. Never, never, never, never—in nothing, great or small, large or petty—never give in, except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force. Never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy."
There is no need to respond to this email. You have many more important things to do with your limited time than to do that. We just want you to know you are supported, appreciated and loved.
Your fellow friend in the science of EPA,
XXXXXXXX

3. I thought John did an excellent job on the 13th. You can tell he was a different animal that day. There is purpose in every area discussed. He is setting the groundwork on some of the more depressing discouraging things he discussed to stress the significant negative ramifications of generics entering the market now in the hopes of influencing those in the FDA and in the courts to get an expedited hearing and possibly delay generics coming on market with aNDA approval. I am in complete alignment with the direction they are going. I know many have had problems with John Thero. I haven’t. We cannot quit this close to the finish line IMO. Thero”s plans are IMO to GIA in US by winning the appeal and partnering in EU until someone gives us an offer that cannot be refused. I believe we announce a partner in late September. I don’t think a BO will occur at this time and especially not until after the ruling in the court case. I believe AMRN feels they have a legitimate shot on the appeal and they would rather take zero for a loss or a dollar for a win than 15 cents on a buy out at this stage. All my opinion and I very well could be wrong. We’ll probably lose money in Q2 and probably Q3.

4. I didn’t think we had a hope in Hades to have an expedited trial. Now we are just an agreement from the courts to give their OK on this! I expect strong arguments from our team. Even with a very very strong argument, I give us about a 35% chance of win. It will come down to the 3 judges. With 2 very favorable judges then our odds may come around to 60-65% IMO and we won’t know that until the day of oral arguments. Appeals are by nature against the appellant so right now I’ve got to say the odds are greatly against us. With that said, the odds were against us with:
A. The NCE court case
B. Freedom of speech
C. Reduce-It results
D. Us staying solvent during 2013-2018
E. Us not getting purchased/taken over by now
WITH THAT SAID, I’M STAYING AN ACTIVE SHAREHOLDER AND NOT BETTING AGAINST THESE GUYS.

5. I was watching the 1980 Holiday Bowl at my house with a friend because it was my team (even though they were mediocre at best but fun to watch). BYU as a university had NEVER won a bowl game at this point. We played SMU before their death sentence day where they had their purchase players of Craig James and Eric Dickerson in the backfield. BYU was getting killed and it was the 4th quarter with about 8 ½ minutes to play and BYU had the ball on their 46 and 4th down and one. They initially brought out their punting team but their was some disturbance among the players and so BYU took a time out. After the time out, they went for it and got the first down on a pass from Jim McMahon to their tight end. BYU drove down the field and scored to cut the lead to 19-38. SMU then drove down and scored again to make the score 45 to 25 and giving the ball back to BYU with about 4 minutes to go. The announcers already had written off the game with their comments that the game was over and the crowd felt the same way. Many of the BYU fans were leaving and Jim McMahon is screaming at them to get back in their seats because the game isn’t over yet. He screamed to no avail except to the die hard fans and his team believing they still had a chance. They then drove down scoring a touchdown with just over 4 minutes left to make the score 45 to 31. They then recovered an onside kick, drove it down the 50 yards and scored again with just barely 2 minutes left and converted the two point conversion making the score 45-39. They didn’t recover the onside kick this time and SMU had the ball. BYU held them but SMU ran down the clock punting with about 17 seconds left on the clock for the win. They were back punting when a no name player had the biggest play of his college career blocking the punt giving BYU the ball at the SMU 41 with 13 seconds left. After 2 incomplete passes it came down to the last play with 4 seconds on the clock. McMahon throws it up for grabs in the end zone and their tight end comes down with it some way with 4 guys draped on him with no time remaining and the score tied. It came down to the extra point with no time on the clock. The ball was snapped without the placeholder ready but he got it down and BYU had their first bowl win. Now you can decide what the most important play of the game was but I would argue that the most important play was with 8 ½ minutes left in the game when they went for it on 4th and 1 on their 46. What the announcers didn’t know and what I didn’t know or those in the crowd was on that 4th down play with over 8 minutes to play was the punter ran out on the field with the punting team. McMahon said, “What are you ^&*&^ doing out here, get back! We’re not punting!” so the punter starts going back off the field and the coachs are yelling at him to get back out there and punt it so he turns back around and McMahon is still screaming, “get off!”. It took up so much time that by the time they set up they had to take a time out. During the time out Jim McMahon with emotion and fire tells the coaches during the time out that the game is not over! They can still win it and he’s not going to quit and he’s going to march back on the field after the time out if they decide to punt. He knew they had a fighting chance. If he hadn’t fought against all odds and convinced his coaches and team, we would not have had this miracle ending and BYU would not have won their first Bowl game. I’m not a McMahon lover but in this situation, it took someone who never quit and believed in the team and their abilities. For every one of those finishes there are 100’s if not 1000’s of other comeback stories that fall short. I still think this could be Amarin “Miracle Bowl”. I’m trusting John to not throw in the towel and sell us on the cheap with the attitude that either we win or we lose. I’ll sit in the stands sustaining this company and chant “Amarin” until we don’t block the final punt and the clock ticks down to zero (unless I just see management doing some incredibly bone headed things). The odds are against us but whats new. I want to be there when they make the movie “$10 Billion to 1 Odds: The story of Amarin Corporation”??.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAgV8LMzQ2c
Best,
Study