I expect long term, oil companies will do better, but why on earth buy them now?
I’m not planning to buy any oil stocks, but I’m holding longstanding positions in CVX and RDS due to the severe tax hit (even now) arising from the minuscule cost basis in these positions (#msg-154211485).
The arithmetic: At any given point, these stocks would have to decline an additional50% from the current price and then stay at that level for selling to be a capital-preserving move.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”