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Wednesday, March 11, 2020 9:31:41 AM
Simple math can be so hard!
The head of the World Health Organization a few days ago released their best estimate of the mortality rate of covid-19: 3.4%. The mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is 0.1%. That means the mortality rate of covid-19 is 34 times higher than the flu. This is just math. Argue with the head of WHO, not me.
You are correct that mortality increases with age and young children are less vulnerable. That simply means elderly are at a greater risk to make the numbers average out.
I further posted a link about a scientist who disagrees with the head of WHO that the 3.4% rate is too high. The article also makes the case that we can’t have a solid estimate at this point, something you will agree with.
Having said all of that, people are hearing from the head of the WHO about this 3.4% rate. They are acting accordingly and that’s causing a lot of disruption and economic loss. Argue your case with the WHO. They have a lot bigger microphone than I do.
Personally I don’t feel that I’ve misled anyone by quoting official projections and acknowledging their limitations.
The head of the World Health Organization a few days ago released their best estimate of the mortality rate of covid-19: 3.4%. The mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is 0.1%. That means the mortality rate of covid-19 is 34 times higher than the flu. This is just math. Argue with the head of WHO, not me.
You are correct that mortality increases with age and young children are less vulnerable. That simply means elderly are at a greater risk to make the numbers average out.
I further posted a link about a scientist who disagrees with the head of WHO that the 3.4% rate is too high. The article also makes the case that we can’t have a solid estimate at this point, something you will agree with.
Having said all of that, people are hearing from the head of the WHO about this 3.4% rate. They are acting accordingly and that’s causing a lot of disruption and economic loss. Argue your case with the WHO. They have a lot bigger microphone than I do.
Personally I don’t feel that I’ve misled anyone by quoting official projections and acknowledging their limitations.
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