Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[ladavis23]

Tasty...

Probably a little more than just weak retail here. The volume over the last two days was well beyond AHA 2018 or any other best raid for that matter.

The problem here is that this patent case got lost in the Adcom / Approval vacuum, at least amongst stakeholder, analysts, etc. when really it was (is) the most critical piece to this entire puzzle. The drug was always going to get approved. The R-It data confirmed that. The only real questions was what was the label going to look like.

I believe the market looked at this case as a risk to AMRN, but something that was “controlled” and always going to end in a settlement. That could still be the case, but something else has happened and now the market is pricing in the potential this case goes all the way. That risk is “New news” and is quickly and violently being priced in.

Now the question is how much more risk does the market want to price in here. Sure feels like the market is telling us there is more than a 15% chance of A outright loss for AMRN.

Let’s hope that the lambs have stopped screaming here..