Value Microcaps Junior Energy

[dr_airtime]

Alberta Gas Producers **Big Opportunity**

All - I'm working on this idea this week. Next step is to pick the gas producers to buy.

This is a rare opportunity IMO as a dysfunctional <CAD 1.00/GJ Alberta Gas energy market has been fixed and....because of that dysfunctional market the last two years, storage levels are at near all-time lows going into winter so the Alberta Market is going to see some significant pricing spikes this winter...and....Alberta Gas producers are at bear market lows, hated, with tax-loss selling pressure to continue for the next month.

Gas is oversupplied in North America, but the Alberta Gas Index AECO has been in the absolute Shi**er the last two years as producers have been forced to sell many times well below $1.00/GJ due to changes in how storage injection rules applied when the Novagas system was down for maintenance. There was an oversupply during these periods and producers were price takers.

1 GJ = 1.05 MCF (rule of thumb for comparing to Henry Hub gas in MCF)

Alberta has had a dysfunctional market because of this, and the entire industry lobbied to the Canadian Energy Regulator to push through new regulation that allows for injection

NovaGas TSP Decision

This is what has happened since the decision.

Gas Market Bottom In

If you are interested in this trade you really need to read the blue-chip Alberta Gas producer Peyto's (PEY.TO) September, October and November monthly president reports to get a feel for the pain, market bottom from the TSP decision, and potential pricing upside this winter:

Read the market commentary in Sept, Oct, Nov Reports

Finally - as long as we are in November you can see the daily AECO gas prices here for October and November. AECO gas literally bottomed in early October when the Canadian Energy Regulator approved the TSP decision.

Daily AECO Prices

Alberta Gas is not going to the moon, but it appears that the gas market pain of the last two years is over.

I don't know where Alberta Gas producers will be in 12 months time, but I think they'll be higher in March and April 2020 than in December 2019 tax loss selling.

The US still needs Alberta Gas. Most of the Gas for the Puget Sound Metropolitan Region comes down from TC Energy's Foothills Pipeline from BC and Alberta. This is not going to change.

This is the NGTL system:

NGTL collection system