Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

The 3th is ruled illegal, sending money in perpetually to treasury is outside their statue so yes the liquidation preference will be paid down with the money the government received from the illegal 3th amendment

Paydown (payoff, really) of liquidation preference is only one possible remedy. One that isn't actually permitted by the terms of the original SPSPAs, actually.

The other remedy involves Treasury sending FnF $131B in cash and keeping the seniors intact. We don't know yet how Judge Atlas will rule, or even if she ever will.

we need to go from a couple of dollars to the final share price, within the next 12 months

But it's possible that we are already at, or even above, the final share price! There is no guarantee whatsoever that the commons have to go up from here. If there truly were zero risk of ending up below $4, the shares would be trading well above $4.

Collins 5th circuit “return net-worth-sweep dividends (or treat them as paying down the liquidation preference”

Okay. The problem is that, as above, you ignore the possibility of Treasury keeping the seniors and sending out a ton of cash. I don't see it as likely, but it is actually the only remedy that is consistent with the terms of the original SPSPAs.

I do expect all the court cases to be settled, meaning that Judge Atlas won't end up prescribing either of the remedies. We don't know yet what form it will take, but supposedly David Thompson (plaintiffs' lawyer in the Collins case) really wants the seniors extinguished. He might not get everything he wants, though.

first we need to see the 11.000 documents, if all is legal as the government suggest we soon will see how legal it is, and all lawsuit will disappear

The lawsuits are going to disappear even without the 11,000 documents being released, if we can believe what Calabria has said. I would think that keeping those documents from ever seeing the light of day is one big reason for the government to come to the negotiating table. I'm not going to hold my breath on those documents ever being released.

will not stop challenging the conservatorship itself

"Challenging" it on a message board doesn't count at all. If anyone is going to claim that any government behavior from 2008 is illegal, they need to challenge it in court where it counts. Complaining on a message board is worse than useless.