jakes_dad: Good question...
I certainly do not want to give the impression about a "near certainty" for the stated adoption of premium services. Nothing is a given.
However, given the fact that Wave's basic services will be bundled via Intel, NSM, VAR's and PC OEM's one must appreciate the fact that end users will be "gently guided" towards Premium Services.
Now, I simply do not believe that security conscious enterprises and individuals that made a decision to buy "securer" PC's will stop there and then not put to use Premium Services...kind of just doesn't make sense.
I, for one, have a terrible time with passwords and just can't wait to buy a TCG TPM PC. I will gladly spend 39.99 for premium services.
But, yes, you are correct in that Wave depends on Premium Service subscriptions to really grow their business. Once 100% of all PC's are equipped with TPM's then that will generate probably around $100 million per annum from licensing fees per platform...but I do not expect that before 2005/2006
Yes, Premium Services are the ticket to prosperity!