Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

For Some, A Lot (Well, Everything) At Stake

What do you think will happen when the undeniable CNS lights get turned on for BP and established political-establishment/NIH interest? Will they nit pick the crap out of this or will they be supportive of data and results? Many have big stakes in the outcome.

Ok, first, the turning on of lights that show Anavex 2-73 really works.

Those of us who have read and comprehended all of the arcane data from rats and Australians with Alzheimer’s traits, while consuming Anavex 2-73, are very certain of the safe efficacies of that new drug. But in reality, it cannot be used therapeutically in non-trial humans until some government’s drug regulatory agency authorizes such. In the US, it would be the Food and Drug Administration. All first-world counties have their own (or shared) drug-regulating authorities.

Until one country authorizes commercial sale of Anavex 2-73 for something, absolutely nothing changes. Big pharmaceuticals will perceive or have no threat from Anavex Life Sciences Corp. Medical practitioners will continue to treat CNS and other diseases as they learned from the med school textbooks and professors. Standards of care, accepted and expected treatments for various diseases and conditions will continue exactly as they are. There will be no new Anavex light (or threat) in medicine. Everything continues as it is; regardless of what some of us, here, know or believe.

Importantly, nothing significant can or will change until real clinical results appear from any one of the current human Anavex trials (against Rett Syndrome, Parkinson’s Disease Dementia, or Alzheimer’s). Of course, if all of these fail, yield no useful symptomatic relief, all of us Anavex longs will fold our then-worthless AVXL positions. End of game for us.

But should any positive trial results appear, things really do begin to change. Those results are the only thing that will validate the Anavex case, arcane journal articles notwithstanding. The views of message board posters, positive or negative, are worthless. Only thing that counts is positive trial results in real humans, with real diseases, getting positive benefits from consuming Anavex 2-73. When we learn of any of that, things will really start to change.

First, of course, will be the anticipation of consequent sale approval for the drug. Inasmuch as the standards of care (existing treatments) for any of the three diseases Anavex is presently targeting are very low, with positive trial results, sales approval is almost certain. At that point, various medical stakeholders will (correctly) perceive that things are going to be changing; big time.

First and foremost are pharmaceutical manufacturers. Approved sales of Anavex drugs for just a fraction of the diseases targeted in the Anavex pipeline will significantly reduce revenues. Statements of support will not be heard from Big Pharma. A cold silence, I predict.

Health insurance executives will be punching into their coverage algorithms every sort of new outcome. There will be some lost sleep. (Poor guys.)

Individuals and institutions dependent on the treatment of chronic CNS diseases will face new, profound challenges. Contemplate those.

But the real deal will be consideration of this New Medicine by politicians. They will have to play what they say and do very carefully. Anavex has the potential to change geriatric health care like nothing before. Medical care and insurance costs, both public and private, will be profoundly affected. Let the reader imagine how any of that might play out.

Lastly, for us, here, how will any of this scenario play out in financial and investment minds? I’ll leave that to others. I’ll confine myself to what I know, biology; not retail stock investments.

All the while, I continue to sleep well each evening. In time (a few months, perhaps), the first positive clinical trial results will appear. With those in mind, it will be heard to sleep that night, considering....

Gonna be fun to see how things develop in the next six months.