My problem with charts is that it discards a TRUMP WIN, wars, and any human intervention. Sorry but the notion that we should disregard real economically changing events is ludicrous. You couldn't have known what a protectionist policy would do. in fact I am absolutely confident that this one man epitomizes the strong notion that we are very near the top. I do believe in correlations with socioeconomic mood and market reversal. Electing such a flawed person with hate and dictatorial control should remind you of other period in time, but I guess ONLY in hindsight do we see it.
I had no idea in 2016 that a redrawn chart would show the events that just happened after, nor did most everyone else. in fact I don't think i saw ONE chart that was drawn correctly. The crowd mentality is same today. I can assure you if this time the move is completely wrong someone today will step in and declare they just started using EW and in hindsight it was obvious. No It Is Not!
In 2016 I just used common sense and fundamentals. Trade War the same thing. An unhinged person that has complete power to executive order the world to stop turning can also affect the path of our future. In fact I COUNT ON IT! In fact he is my number one chart designer. Let me give you an example. IF he stays in office till his term is up I can guarantee he will attack the EU on autos. A 100% guarantee. In fact he is itching to do it today but can't because his handlers are telling him a two front war is not a great idea. BUT his patience will not hold and in fact odds of China settling a deal is almost zero now. they are starting to push back hard with demands of their own, such as ZERO tariffs while they discuss trade and Telecommunication giant be allowed to run it business here. If the scenario I just described happens and there is a total breakdown in China talks Trump will also go after EU because he has no restraint or common sense.
As the last trade war started all EW charts had to do strange machinations to accept the drop from that trade war. i mean there was NONE that I saw and we were in the Tony Caldaro blog. They created double abc, zig-zag arguments to justify their mistake. Please tell me YOU had the chart drawn correctly when Trump announced his trade war. SORRY but if the past can easily be fooled or made so it is virtually impossible to catch these move what good is it? I made more money during that time than anyone on that site using EW.
I'll stick with common sense. The market is getting psychologically crazy over the notion that this move needs desperately to see rate cuts and big ones. I know this by the market reaction the DAY the news comes out.
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I will guarantee you the following take place.
1 - IF the FED does not cut rates by end of this month the market will start a nasty drop.
2 - If the FED only cuts by 25 basis points it stops cold the rise.
3 - If we have a full out trade war with China this time around we drop deeper and longer than the last time.
4 - IF Trump tariffs AUTOS - G-A-M-E O-V-E-R!
BTW, you do realize no matter how badly people interpret Elliot Wave you can ALWAYS use the established rules to justify it is perfect in hindsight. In other words it is self correcting just by redrawing it to fit the current picture. The Charts are always self correcting as it did in 2016. PRESTO, sorry folks but there was a slight misinterpretation 5 years ago. It wasn't really a terminal wave pattern. SEE? You fool yourself in thinking there is a Holy Grail of Investing.
I will hold my tongue on Elliot Wave counts till then. I do acknowledge in nature Fibonacci structure of fractions. I use it myself on daily and weekly patterns. To extrapolate the future from that is a fools mission. Just name me ONE PERSON over a ten year period that got the calls better than 65% of the time using Elliot. We make statement that become self fulfilling. No Elliot Wave has not been proven. if it has everyone would use it and that in itself would blow up its effectiveness.
At one point I ran the whole IT division after a raided takeover and firing of all staff but me. Insane top management decision and I should have walked out. instead i took the money but had to quickly learn Data Base Management, Operations management, kept the system running all on my own with only help from outside hired vendors that was clueless in our setup. On vacation I spent half the time putting out fires 3,000 miles away. AT one point the whole IT shut sown and nothing went out, no products, no inventory, no bills of lading, no payable, NOTHING! Took me 72 hours to get it going again. My point is that the decision to fire everyone was suicidal and yet not a single upper management person convinced the company. Elliot Wave has its good and bad. There are long periods of time it seems to work great. Then 2016 comes along, trade wars, Trumps policies.
