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Good idea to track your own record but

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gdl   Friday, 07/05/19 10:41:36 AM
Re: gratitude post# 86
Post # of 405 
Good idea to track your own record but it should be to alter,fix, correct your own work when found to be wrong. I use the bad calls specifically to see how i got that conclusion. Sometimes there is no way to fix a bad call and other times you can point to specific bias and glaring mistakes.

I know with this presidential term I have problems focusing on market behavior because I can't figure out how much of this administration policies will get thru to the market. Trade War and obsession to alienate our allies has long term consequences but does it also have short term ones?

The market took a hit today on partly because it was over extended but the obsession by this market to see rate cuts begs the question why? A great jobs number will stall any thought of rate cut. Seems this market needs a rate cut for earnings growth ONLY. WHY? I can only conclude that borrowing and debt levels have not grown enough. To me that is a strange position for a market at it's highs. We are very near a major correction or start of something worse.

The consistent pattern this market exhibits tells me without a doubt that no rate cut in JULY will kill any momentum. Earnings is so forwardly baked in that they would need a setup for such an explosion in earnings. that requires more investments debt borrowing. The street had expected double digit earnings growth in just 6 months time. I suspect with the world falling into a recession we will not only NOT see that growth but it would show negative result. That's a HUGE miss.

So as you can see i talk this out and have done so all my life. That's MY method. I try to read the reaction of markets. I also use technical and EW wave structure for short term play.

Markets today want bad news on the domestic economy to justify earnings growth with rate cuts. not going to happen. Trying to boost personal spending in a 10 year super bullish move when the service sector is on fire is ludicrous. This tells me that consumers are about to be tapped out regardless of all the new jobs.

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