Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

If A2-73 is approved or not in one indication is a binary outcome. We will never know if the 80%, 30% or some other success score was the right one. The outcome will however influence the statistics pool of information a tiny bit this way or that.

I look at the problem similar to the analysts, such as at Janney who gave $NTRP a 20% chance of success and used that as one input to calculate a discounted value seen over 12 months horizon. Not sure what they assigned to $AVXL?

The score should be seen in context of running a biotech portfolio, where the idea is that some investments will fail and a few more than make up for the losses.

If/when A2-73 succeeds in one indication, I will adjust my score much higher but not before.