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CareClix Estimates

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daiello   Tuesday, 06/11/19 06:39:59 PM
Re: MWM post# 12210
Post # of 23318 
CareClix Estimates

I looked back at TDOC 10-K for 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, and their 10-Q for Q1 of 2019 pulling their Revenue, Subscribers, O/S and then stockcharts for closing price for end of the years/quarter.

In their 2018 filing they changed how they mentioned their subscribers from from "unique members" to "paid subscribers" and "visit fee only". It doesn't really matter, because the Revenue/Sub captures the excess revenue from visit only, which I'm sure SOLI sees as well. Regardless, TDOC subscribers seems to have grown 105% since end of 2015.

You or EdF found an article from 2015 showing that CareClix has 3.5M users, so utilizing the same growth rates as TDOC I put this together which puts us as 7.2M users and with $19.26 revenue/sub at $138M revenue. (IMAGE BELOW)

I put together share price assumptions based on revenue ranging from $50M to $138M along with 4 revenue multiples. Maybe CareClix didn't grow much like TDOC, or maybe its right in line with TDOC and their multiple ranges between 6x (TDOC's lowest in 2016) and 13.5x (TDOC's highest in 2018 when they hit $90). I also utilized our lower O/S assuming Gregg's shares are cancelled. (IMAGE BELOW)

I then put together a share price table with changing user #s and revenue per user with a 7.75x revenue multiple (TDOC's multiple as of 3/31/2019, actually above 8x using today's share price but whatever). Let's say CareClix didn't grow at all from 2015 and their revenue per user is below TDOC and comes in at $10/user. We would be valued at $2.54. Well over a double from today's prices. (IMAGE BELOW)

Lastly, like I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago, TDOC is a glorified call center with a ton of employees/overhead. Strip that out for CareClix. I would assume CareClix has very healthy margins so I put together an analysis based on the potential of them being profitable (unlike TDOC) so utilizing a P/E ratio instead of revenue multiple. The company for sale in the link below has extremely high margins and incredible growth. I think this is where we could see some serious share prices.


I put two assumptions together based on $50M revenue (again assuming maybe we didn't grow as fast, or maybe we didn't see as high of revenue per user) and $138M revenue along with margins ranging from 5% to 35%, with PE ratio ranging from S&P current ratios and some known companies along with high flyers (Netflix, Amazon) and lastly TDOC's estimated P/E if they were profitable. If TDOC made net profit of $1,000,000 in 2018 that would be an EPS of $.014 which translates into a P/E ratio of 3,971 (labeled TDOC 1M). If they made $5M that would be .069/share and PE ratio of 805 (labeled TDOC 5M). That share price gets pretty ridiculous, but just goes to show that if we're profitable, we might see huge valuations. I don't expect S&P, or MSFT valuations, but wanted to show that outside of having a 5% margin we have lots of room to move.(IMAGE BELOW)

"Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical point
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