Your Economy (No Politics)

[CoalTrain]

Market relevance first:

In any of the scenarios discussed would there not be a way for the market to know? LArge orders of gas masks or troop movements in the Kurd region or something. Imagine Israel bombing Iran without enough gas masks for all the civilians? The market tells us invasion aint happening in the very short term.

Earnie pointing out the large chemical arsenals of Syria and Iran changes things in my mind a bit. Short term Iran could do more damage than I was thinking. They have the missiles to hit Israel already. If they bought enough of them they might not be so dependant in the very short term on Moscow. The backroom deals I pondered have a much lower probability in my mind.


Obviously this is all speculation and makes for interesting conversation, but I can't help to wonder why Israel would not do something.

Because they cant.

They cant do anything. The trend is your friend until it ends but that does not mean fundamentals dont count. The Marshall plan era is over. The Marshal plan era was charecterized by U.S. interests being able to beat the hell out of anyone anywhere on a military front, and economic warfare front AND later in the Marshall plan era the cultural front. At the end of world war two technology was changing the world in dramatic ways. With Europe bombed to hell and the rest of the world largely "undeveloped" the U.S. was in a really sweet spot to dominate the world. Such things dont last forever.

I can see the temptation to think Israel will "win" simply because they always have. For how many decades?? Pretty long trend. I dont bet against gravity. I just dont see the fundamentals supporting U.S./Israeli aggression without a hellaciously increasing cost. At some point the cost will gap up and that gap wont be filled.

Once Earnie pointed out the chemical option I at the moment cant see that Israel can do a damn thing. They bomb Iran, Iran lays waste to Israel with chemical weapons using Russian missiles. Then what? Israels massively reduced force invades Iran? Bush declares victory in Iraq and 40,000 U.S. troops charge at the Iranian mountains? With Iraqi's shooting them hell out of them all the way. Attacking a trillion dollars worth of CHinese and Russian bussiness interests???

I mean there is suicide and then there is suicide. Shot gun against tank Palestinian style is on thing jumping out of an airplane with a machette and no parachute is another thing.





They fear a nuclear Iran, as do many of the neighboring Arab nations who are walking a tightrope between loyalty to their culture and the madness of a nut with nukes...

Stranger things have happened. We did nothing while Korea gave the U.S. the finger and shouted at the top of their lungs they were making multiple nukes. Imagine the shock to the U.S economy if Japan gets nuked and the flow of Japanese cars and computers stops?

What we are witnessing here is not just Bushie diplomatic insanity. It is the collective insanity of the nuclear era coming to a new level. When the U.S. and Russia did not stop the nuclear arms race so many decades it was only a matter of time before the Arab world would have a bomb. Might have come a lot later had so many civilian populations not been bombed accelerating the whole mess but it was always coming. Here we are. Aint it grand.

Even if a draft and Marshall law were declared tonight it would take a while to train the troops. Not saying we dont invade Iran, just not now. I think it is much more likely something in the Balkans gets stirred up. Pre existing multi national coalition already in place. If done properly it would drag all of Europe in on it or destroy NATO.

Then again I could be wrong. It happened once several decades ago. I think it was a thursday.