Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[dewophile]

yeah to say browne would dilute an ANY cost is a bit extreme - i mean sure he would get new options at the lower price but he has hundreds of thousands of options that would be diluted - and for what one more raise until revenue comes in and the company can fund itself. That decidedly wouldn't be in his self interest.

I have a different theory on what's going on that does not have Browne as such a villain. Investors view the company as dead money for 2019 plain and simple. The notion of a BD deal is the only thing keeping people at all interested in holding, and when you downplay the notion of an imminent deal you get a response like yesterday where people sell figuring they can always put money to work elsewhere and get in early next year in advance of all the H2 2020 data and hopefully approval. I agree the company needs more money to launch but I also think the company has several levers to pull short of selling shares if the price stays low. When on the cusp of approval you can sell a tiny royalty for good money (ala IMMU). you can take a loan to bridge until revenue comes in (like EOLS). Also several calls ago (before I owned a significant position) Brown mentioned that there is particular interest in partnering on the therapeutic side. My hunch is that partners want more data before shelling out significant up front. And it is not the kind of thing that can be done easily with a milestone bc the details of the readouts matter a lot. What if duration is 20 weeks - that is worth a lot less than a clean 24 week duration. what if responses are the same vs increased - still "positive" but very different in terms of value. In fact yesterday Browne said they are active on BD not only for aesthetics in EU but in other indications which to me implies therapeutic (not just in EU). So I do think if say PF data come in positive a deal on good terms will happen quickly.
And by the way i don't think some smaller deals this year are impossible. It is telling that the china deal did not include other asian countries like many comparable deals. and why didn't the mylan deal include japan? Mylan has a significant presence there. So Japan could be in play. A smaller deal together with milestones from fosun and biosimilar could materially mitigate the amount of cash needed.