Saturday, March 23, 2019 1:24:16 AM
Thanks for taking the time to provide such a thorough response!
I am going to differ with you in one respect.
If sales grow to $1 billion (admittedly an unlikely scenario), I feel the share price will considerably exceed $100/share, not $10/share, based on:
*20 million shares outstanding (more than triple current levels to address ownership transfer, preferred shares, and farm and other purchases)
*$300 million in net profit (assuming 30% profit margin source:
https://professionaldrinking.com/how-does-the-wine-distribution-system-work/) or $15/share earnings
*Industry PE average of 17 (source: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-retailing/aim-wine/majestic-wine-shares/news/is-majestic-wine-plc-lonwine-attractive-at-its-current-pe-ratio/) but I am going to say with the cannabis element plus explosive sales growth to $1 billion (and it would indeed be explosive from current levels) a PE of 25 is more likely and that would give us 25 x $15/share = a stock price of $375...so actually, to get to $100, we'd need sales of $267 million rather than $1 billion
We can see even with even much lower and perhaps more plausible sales growth, the share price would increase quite a bit over current levels. The key words are "with sales growth" and I am admittedly an optimist in this area. IMO with all the ideas/initiatives out there sales could be $100 million in 3 years, which with 20 million O/S, a profit margin of 30% ($30 million or $1.50/share), and keeping the PE of 25, this would get us to a share price of $37.50.
"May your Bellissima Dreams Come True"!
I am going to differ with you in one respect.
If sales grow to $1 billion (admittedly an unlikely scenario), I feel the share price will considerably exceed $100/share, not $10/share, based on:
*20 million shares outstanding (more than triple current levels to address ownership transfer, preferred shares, and farm and other purchases)
*$300 million in net profit (assuming 30% profit margin source:
https://professionaldrinking.com/how-does-the-wine-distribution-system-work/) or $15/share earnings
*Industry PE average of 17 (source: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-retailing/aim-wine/majestic-wine-shares/news/is-majestic-wine-plc-lonwine-attractive-at-its-current-pe-ratio/) but I am going to say with the cannabis element plus explosive sales growth to $1 billion (and it would indeed be explosive from current levels) a PE of 25 is more likely and that would give us 25 x $15/share = a stock price of $375...so actually, to get to $100, we'd need sales of $267 million rather than $1 billion
We can see even with even much lower and perhaps more plausible sales growth, the share price would increase quite a bit over current levels. The key words are "with sales growth" and I am admittedly an optimist in this area. IMO with all the ideas/initiatives out there sales could be $100 million in 3 years, which with 20 million O/S, a profit margin of 30% ($30 million or $1.50/share), and keeping the PE of 25, this would get us to a share price of $37.50.
"May your Bellissima Dreams Come True"!
