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Re: DlphcOracl post# 153178

Saturday, 09/20/2003 1:31:14 PM

Saturday, September 20, 2003 1:31:14 PM

Post# of 704041
I suspect that you have not taken advantage of the bull market in equities, however. Trading in and out of a market demonstrating this degree of breadth and momentum is unnecessary and unprofitable, however.

i have, depending on the period. gold miners throughout. insurers after 10/01. oil, gas and energy. medical services and delivery.

maybe one of these days i'll revise my strategies, but for now, my long-term porfolio is for thinking long term and value. so i'm not going to stuff it with tech stocks that have already priced in three years of blue skies and growth and warm puppies. as i've said before, there i'll buy pessimism, since i can manufacture my own optimism and don't need to pay for it. and, no, i did not see the value in tech in october, nor in march, and i still don't.

the same thing is going on in equities right now

no, the same thing is not going on in equities right now. gold has been climbing a wall of worry and doubt for years now. it has regularly shaken out the speculators with sharp drops. it still sees doubt and scorn among analysts. tech stocks have *always* been a buy. it has *always* been: get in, quick, the train is leaving the station!

let's keep this concrete: brks hit $7.50 in may, now its $25, and recently had two upgrades, with targets $27.5 and $54. why? give me one bit of evidence that this is all justified, as an investment. i don't see it, and so i won't participate. sure, it may take off without me, but ... oh well. that's what my trading portfolio is for.

Trading in and out of a market demonstrating this degree of breadth and momentum is unnecessary and unprofitable, however.

perhaps. i'm not comfortable day trading anyway. so when i talk shorter term, i mean days or weeks or months. and you're possibly right: maybe the momentum will continue to carry everything up and up and up. that's certainly possible. however, to me, the opportunity being made right now (opporunity trading-wise) comes the disconnect from perception and reality: that ibm's business is improving and therefore so will csco or extr or pmcs. anyway, i have to deal with my own comfort levels. to me, msft is a short over the longer term. when, i don't know. but when i look at the price rising, i see that as a short opportunity being made. because i see it this way, i'm uncomfortable holding long without mucho protectione; and i'm willing to take profits when they're presented to me. heck, if the market is as you describe, then this strategy is fine, since there'll always be something that folks are chasing. after all, my actual goals are and have always been ~25% return per year. i've exceeded that by far over the last two years, but if i can do that, i'm happy.


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