Important update: Going back through my conversation with Peter Letizia I realize I missed something critical. I quickly typed everything up here on memory initially. After looking back though my info see the 2nd paragraph below.
- The expected survival rate for the third and final trial was 44%-50% and they would have moved forward with these numbers into production. There would not have been a 4th trial to try to tweak the systems to get the mortality rate down. They still expected to be profitable at these numbers.
- All the financial analysis done prior to this 3rd and final trial was based on a 44-50% survival rate. 6,000lbs per tank was based on 44-50% survival. "The model at 44-50% at 6 months was still based at the 6,000lbs a week or 300,000lbs a year"
- The estimate is still 100% survival. You typically will find some dead shrimp or evidence of dead shrimp without too much effort. They still have yet to find any evidence of any mortality. Now this does not mean the harvest will come back 100% when all is said and done. I asked if he would say 97-100% was reasonable and said yes that wouldn’t surprise him.
- When 50% was the expectation, they also expected the growth cycle to take less than 24 weeks.
- They do feel they can get back to a 24 - 26 week grow out moving forward with adjustment to the feed and RAS system. They still expect 2 harvests per year per tank.
- Based on the estimated high survival rate, each facility could produce over the 312,000 lb yearly estimate. He didn’t give an exact estimate but that tells me 6,000 lbs per harvest could be a little light now. Make you own conclusions.
- Harvest results coming soon. Results will be verified by third party and data released in the upcoming weeks. Major companies in aquaculture waiting on the final results.
- Both Natural Shrimp and F&T are in discussions with other companies in relation to partnerships and licensing deals. He of course could not elaborate who those companies were. For what it’s worth he did mention Pentair 4 or 5 times without me bringing them up. Never indicated they were in discussions with them but talked a lot about them.
- At first he indicated the companies he is in discussions with were more on the farming side of aquaculture. He then switched gears and indicated RAS equipment providers and food producers/suppliers were also in the mix.
- The Salmon and Barramundi trials should be pretty quick. They want to move forward with this as quickly as possible. He didn’t give a time frame but I asked if it would take 3 years and he said it would not.
- When asked how quickly F&T could manufacture the equipment for one facility he said it would not be an issue at all. They have production partners in place and they can ramp things up pretty quickly.
- It has been discussed in the past as to whether or not they will grow their own shrimp without the need to purchase stock. They are definitely going to breed for themselves in the future or license or own their own hatchery.
- It appears GHS is still in the picture but not at the old terms. When asked if this was the reason for the delay in the S-1 the answer was yes. GHS was at the facility for the recent gathering. He mentioned specifically “favorable terms” but couldn’t really elaborate. I’m concluding they now have better terms and have this in place to fund the upcoming facilities if no one partners with them. Make your own conclusions.
- He also made the statement that there is no buyout on the table that he’s aware of but it would not surprise him if something did happen. He expects that it’s a very strong possibly more so down the road.
I cannot 100% guarantee the accuracy of this information. Just reiterating what Peter told me. Personally I believe him. Make you own conclusions. I am not a pumper. Just a regular person trying to figure this shrimp thing out. As of today I have never sold a single share since adding my first position back in November.
