Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

I’ve Done My Own Private Spreadsheet On This

[Is it possible]...these drugs will achieve mega-blockbuster drug status with sales of at least several billion dollars per year?

On a spreadsheet, I’ve punched in all of the controlling numbers I could find to answer this big question (and others). I will keep the spreadsheet to myself — would merely prompt naysayers to claim I’d be pumping Anavex.

But anyone who can use a spreadsheet can run the potential ranges themselves. Here are the controlling factors (as I see them):

1. The names and numbers of the diseases and conditions to be treated.
(Right now, Rett syndrome, Parkinson’s, and Alzheimer’s. Very likely to be more, including insomnia.)

2. Number of cases of each condition annually in the US.
(Potential number of patients.)

3. Number of cases of each condition annually in the rest of the world.
(Potential number of patients globally.)

4. Anticipated annual per-patient revenues for each condition, in each geographic region.

5. Total annual corporate revenues.

6. Estimated after-costs corporate revenues.

7. Estimated drop-down funds going out as per-share dividends.

8. Estimated price/earnings ratio, to estimate share price and market capitalization.

All of these metrics must be stated as ranges, not solid integers.

For some who post often here, no need for a spreadsheet. Zero times any number is zero. For them, they are certain Anavex clinical trials will yield no validating, positive clinical outcomes. No need for the trials themselves. Anavex 2-73 is a central nervous system treatment zero from the start. End of game, before it starts.

But for others, punch the numbers. See the potential ranges of all of the metrics.