Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[OFP]

It’s going to take several companies to address this disease. Anavex has already eliminated 20% from the start.

The view that AVXL has "eliminated 20%" is IMO a logical error that has taken on mythic proportions in these here parts.

First, AVXL will include those with and without SIGMAR1 variants (the 20% I believe you are referring to) in their study. So AVXL has not eliminated anything.

Next they will test the HYPOTHESIS that the variant subjects respond less well to 2-73 vs. placebo among the entire group tested similarly. All they have done so far is pre-specify a subgroup for analysis...there was no elimination of these subjects.

The HYPOTHESIS that the variant group has a differential response should still be considered with significant doubt. It is based on a post hoc analysis so it is just an observed correlation that can be explained in multiple ways and only one of those explanations is that there is a differential effect of 2-73 based on genotype. Another explanation is that some genotypes just tend to do worse AD course and there is still hope that their decline was slowed relative to what would have been their natural course. Such an effect could not be detected because there was no placebo group. Another explanation is that the correlation occurred by chance and 2-73 has no effect or an undetectable effect given the low numbers of patients and the correlation is just anomaly.

To recap:
Possibility #1: 2-73 is effective on wtSIGMAR1 but not on the variant - this seems to be accepted already by many as fact
Possibility #2: 2-73 is effective on all variants but some gene types have an intrinsically worse course and a placebo group will be required to appreciate the beneficial effect relative to placebo - this is the most optimistic possibility and I don't think I've seen it considered on this eternally optimistic forum
Possibility #3: 2-73 is not effective or has such low efficacy that effects can not be appreciated in a low N, uncontrolled trial. Correlations are just due to chance. - I think this is most likely.