Noble research included Rett trial in their AVXL recommendation. Their assumptions were 30,000 patients in 2016; 20% success rate; peak sales of $500m in 2020/2025; remaining R&D expenses of $5m. Risk adjusted net PV was about 42m dollars. At that time the stock price was around $5 range. With their tech premium of 20% that puts the value at $50m. Now with FDA’s approval of IND, I would say the success rate is around 33%. I guess that would mean about $75m which is about $1.5-2 value increase. If the success of Rett trial improves the other trials’ success rate (it should imo), then we should add that synergy on. So I guess with the approval we should see about $5-7 range (currently the stock is oversold, should be around $3-4 range)m which is not great but still better than now...
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