Interesting stuff.
When I project my price point expectations I don't refer to any charting service or reliance upon TA and thus have no published points of reference. In stating that I'll be a buyer at $11.90, I was hoping to establish what I sense is a "smart" number which, if followed by others, should prove to be an economical starting point. I rarely buy in 100 unit tranches but if I'm thinking my nibbling start point is $11.90, rest assured I'm considering the possibility that $11.90 might well become the high with numbers well beneath that coming our way. So I suggest buying in small numbers so as to take fuller advantage of opportunities should they come into view next.
$11.90 is a product of my instincts, nothing more. Based on what we've been seeing the past week plus, I'm expecting we will drop back into the mid-$11 range. It's nothing engravable in stone, just my sixth sense.
To be blunt---I've got a mountain of dry powder available....been accumulating for much of the year, just waiting to take advantage of special situations. NGL remains my top priority and if the price drops to $11.90 I'll get a hundred units. But I'll be watching like a hawk for price points lower still. And I'll stay with buying in lots of 100 unless I sense a sharp slap in the face with units being toyed with by pros, driving the price down to $11.35 or thereabouts. At that point I won't hesitate to add in larger lots---say, 300 to 400 units per buy.
Something I can't help but bring up:
Units have already dropped down to $12.15. We went ex-D on July 7th. That means we've plowed through seven weeks or about half of the distribution cycle thus far. I'm convinced HFT (machines) will flex muscles bearing down on NGL until we stand at the door to the next quarter. That should bring us to the beginning of the second week of October at which time more investors will be coming on board so as to be positioned for the next distribution.
So then, I figure we're about a week away from the mid-point in the cycle. The only thing to motivate someone to buy in the next few weeks is the promise of a great distribution. I like payouts as much as the next guy but I want to be positioned for positive guidance. And if it should include news of a soon-to-be reinstated distribution increase? I'll be positioned to gain full value for that, too.
Adding it all up, I see nothing to hold the price up for another month or more. Dropping thirty cents from here seems a shoo-in to me. While I hope I'm wrong for everybody's sake, if it should drop as I'm suggesting, I'll be ready for it.
Good fortune, everybody!
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