Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[FlyFishingStocks]

Me33 -

Now here are three main reasons for the current pps:
Dilution and insiders selling.
Funds portfolio adjustment to reduce risk exposure.
Fish oil Meta Analysis.
None of the above changes anything about EPA sience and RI chances of success. IMO recent sell off created a unique opportunity to accumulate shares at nice discount so close to a binary event.
Now to be clear although it's possible I'm not betting on some crazy efficacy results but IMO results will be substantial enough to generate huge interest and demand for AMRN stock with imminent BO in the end.

These 3 main reasons should be MAJOR reasons for failure.

This chart helps explain why. Notice the red down bars as prices sink below the important 200- and 50-day moving averages:



Momentum is gaining steam – unfortunately to the downside.

You can see the price response to the Cantor F. induced rally that failed at the iceline, and subsequent kill shot by management’s secondary offering. The stock has not recovered. You are right, funds suddenly perceived the investment as risky and began to bail (especially when insiders sold). From then on, smart money chose to sell at resistance vs buy at support. There is not one green bar (like we see at the beginning of other rallies) since the January top.

Finally, the Fish Oil Meta Analysis. What do you think trial participants are going to do when they hear of all these fish oil studies failing to prove any significance in preventing CVD? Do you think they’ll continue to choke down 4 horse pills? Some no doubt were aware that Amarin failed to meet efficacy and/or conditions sufficient to halt at two separate interims. Do you think they remained dedicated to their mineral oil after that news?

Now to be clear although it's possible I'm not betting on some crazy efficacy results

Yes,.. you are. It has truly become a gamble/bet.

IMO results will be substantial enough to generate huge interest and demand for AMRN stock with imminent BO in the end.

I highly doubt any BP is interested, given their ‘black eye’ history with the FDA. Thus the preparation to GIA, and try and survive.

Based on my calculations, there is now a 94% chance of a leak (someone knows something is wrong) and only a 4% chance of recovery leading to a successful outcome. People always know and they tell their friends. Of course, if you are drunk on the Kool-Aid, you will ignore all this.