Sunday, August 05, 2018 9:50:06 PM
Lots of recent interest in risk on the board, so we should look at each of the risk factors together. If you disagree with the assessment of this first risk factor then please state why. I will be introducing other risk factors and you can suggest risk factors to discuss as well.
A first obvious risk factor is can the well be drilled by ZN?
Here are the components that make up the drilling risk:
1. ZN has drilled only a few wells so may not have the expertise necessary.
2. The rig used to drill may be suspect.
3. The crew running the rig is from a company just recovering from bankruptcy. Did they bring the "A" game?
4. Problems can be encountered downhole from the geology (unstable rock, very high pressure, etc)
5. Just bad luck may cause an accident such as an environmental spill.
Wow. Taken all together is was at best a 50-50 chance the well could be drilled.
Ok, but now the well is drilled. Does everyone agree the risk of drilling the well is now zero?
Again, please, if you have insight to share on why the risk of drilling is other than zero at this point state it in non-inflammatory terms and your position will be considered.
Risk Factor #2 will be introduced shortly after time for discussion on Factor #1.
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