AAIC is first and foremost a science/medical conference and Anavex's presentations and posters will reflect this. Attendees are mostly MD's and PhD's but some Biotech analysts and science journalists will be attending. A2-73 and BAN2401 will be looked at completely independently. If AAIC is anything like other international large meetings, at any time several presentations and activities are going on but one or two will be attracting larger crowds. Initial public presentations from controlled Phase 2's and Phase 3's garner the largest crowds. Like it or not, BAN2401 is getting more attention than any other drug in development right now. Their presentation will be heavily attended. Therefore, being able to present in the same room within an hour of BIIB means that Anavex will get many more eyeballs at their presentation than they would have had at just the poster. This is a positive and they need to do a good job. I would not be at all surprised if there is some SP reaction but I would not expect a huge move (beyond 4.2 or below 2.5)
However, I'm expecting a much larger reaction to BIIB's presentation than to Anavex's presentation because everyone who researches AD or treats AD or analyzes AD companies wants to know the details of the BAN2401 study. BIIB SP will move billions one way or the other. Anavex will not be presenting new clinical data. Three year noncontrolled data, if it matters, won't be available until later this year. This is the same Phase 2a with the same tiny group and without a placebo to compare. Possibly, the only new data will be that a genetic marker will be named, specifically rather than generally, that was associated with a better outcome. The scientists and clinicians in the audience will be scanning the slides for the placebo comparator and wondering why none was included. The analysts in the room will be checking their watch to see how much longer they need to wait for BIIB's talk.
There are other possible events later this year that may have more impact on price than AAIC. I do expect them to eventually get the Rett IND through the FDA, though the study will be more complex than initially imagined (third time is the charm? or fourth?). There is a high probability that both PDD and AD enroll their first patients by the end of the year. These are all anticipated events so still mostly baked into the price. There won't be any readouts in 2018 or Q1/Q2/Q3 2019 and probably not until 2020 which could lead to huge moves up or down. Rapidly completing enrollment could be a positive though of course not doing so would be a negative.
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