NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

abeta, my % in the ballpark suggests that at least 70% of the 100 patients alive in June did not progress. Flipper believes that between between 2/17 and 6/17 or thereabouts only about 1 patient progressed each month and therefore the proportion of PFS among the living patients would be about 75% (or close to that). I don't have the knowledge or expertise to estimate the percent survival of patients with the different biotypes. From what I read so far the treatment patients with the mesenchymal type should do extremely well.

I do believe however that in June we still had controls who were PFS. In previous published studies 5-10% of the SOC were alive after 60 months and most probably years thereafter there were still a few alive. I therefore expect that during June 2017 or 37 months after the midpoint enrollment we would still have at least up to 10 PFS control patients. In fact I would not be surprised if among the approximately 33 participants (10%) who did not receive DCVax-L, about 2/3 (22?) were too sick, died too early or for other reasons did not receive the vaccine whereas about 1/3 (11?) did not progress by June 2017. This rough estimate does not negate the probability that the overwhelming majority of the PFS and survivors are early L recipients with an over representation of the mesenchymal bio type (JMHO). Best regards.